Information and entropy model of management decision making in the development of organizational and technical systems

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Шарко О., Петрушенко Н., Дурняк Б., Бабічев С. № 2 (63) 85-96 Image Image

Uncertainty decision-making is an urgent task today. Too hasty decisions can be unsuccessful, and delaying the process of making them can mean lost opportunities. The problem of making managerial decisions in organizational and technical systems in which the purpose of management is not exogenously set and is formed within the system is considered. The concept of poorly structured tasks of management of organizational and technical systems depending on a situation, with the qualitative characteristics making an a priori relation of the subject to a condition of system is offered. The entropy of the organizational and technical system is a logarithmic measure of the inversion of the source of information and characterizes the average degree of uncertainty in assessing the state of the source of information. On the basis of the law of large numbers with a large number of states of the organizational and technical system as a whole, the arithmetic content of these states will become stable. This allowed us to identify the general patterns of self-organization of the functioning of organizational and technical systems caused by fluctuations in the environment. An information-entropy model of quantitative evaluation of the necessary input information in making managerial decisions on the functioning of organizational and technical systems in the dynamic influence of the external environment, based on the differences between a priori and a posteriori entropy is suggested. With decreasing information, the entropy increases and, conversely, with increasing information, the entropy decreases, so the change in entropy is the main criterion for the effectiveness of transformational transformations. An algorithm for establishing and eliminating the present uncertainty, based on the structuring of information needs and means of providing them, has been created. Calculations of a priori and a posteriori information and the value of entropy make it possible to regulate the process of accumulation of the required amount of information in management decisions. The accuracy of determining the amount of information for making adequate management decisions on the dynamic development of organizational and technical systems under the influence of the external environment is proportional to the number of analysed indicators.

Keywords: innovative development, uncertainty, management, information support, a priori entropy, quantitative estimates.

doi: 10.32403/1998-6912-2021-2-63-85-96


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