On the issue of modernizing the printing and publishing unit under the conditions of unstable product demand

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Kulchytska Kh. B., Predko L. S., Semeniv M. R. № 2 (59) 38-49 Image Image

While modernizing publishing and printing companies (production expansion, technical re-equipment), as well as designing and reconstructing their units, it is difficult to determine the value of the task parameters that predict the course of processes in the future. The task should be mathematically grounded and based on real data, collected during a certain period of time. The demand for products in the region should also be taken into account. The task’s main components include type of product, volume, circulation, number of colors, complexity groups of text and illustration, etc.

In this paper, with help of game theory we look into average values of volume and circulation of five types of products over the course of five years.

As a result, we have received square matrices of the fifth order in which volumes (circulation) by a type of product were its columns, and volumes (circulations) during a certain year were its rows. The analysis of the matrix has revealed the lack of a dominant product release strategy. Therefore, we have used various selection criteria differing in degree of conservatism, namely: Laplace, Wald, Sevidzh, Hurwitz, and data multiplication.

The choice of a strategy for changing the volume of publications by type of product in a publishing company, working for two years, has been confirmed by two criteria out of five. The final choice fell on the strategy of the second year of work, which was determined by the criteria of caution (Wald) and averaging (Hurwitz). For the optimal strategy of circulation, we adopted a strategy that was determined by four criteria of Laplace, Sevidzh, Hurwitz (α = 0.5) and multiplication (first year of the company’s work). The choice is made, as it is confirmed by diverse criteria, which are optimistic (Laplace and product), which are moderately optimistic (Hurwitz) and a criteria that allows minimal risk (Sevidzh).

In a similar way, the choice of any component of the designing task can be sub­stan­tiated, which will reduce the risk and facilitate the adoption of the correct design decisions.

Keywords: designing tasks, component tasks, uncertainty, game theory, enterprise strategy.

doi: 10.32403/1998-6912-2019-2-59-38-49

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